India has a distinct comparative factor advantage as a vast reservoir of skilled manpower. There will be a lot of opportunities thrown at India because of the demographic advantage it will have over other countries. The demographic differentials reveal that over the next 20-30 years, India’s population profile will be concentrated in the younger age group, as against the other countries.
An ageing population will make the developed world, and even China, dependent on India which will have a surplus workforce of 4.7 crore people by the year 2020. At the same time, it is estimated, the US will face a shortage of 1.7 crore people while China and Japan will have deficits of 1 crore and 90 lakh, respectively. This will make India, which will have a predominantly young population, the human resource pool for the world, helping the country tide over an expected unemployment crisis.
A reputed global financial firm, UBS in a report says in the developed world, the share of over-65 in relation to the 15-64 year old group ranges between 20-30%, with higher rates in Japan and continental Europe. This ‘youth depopulation’, will have far reaching implications for the economy, consumers product companies, providers of educational and child care service, the housing sector and a part of the core (real estate lending) business of financial services institutions, according to the experts who have made the study of global demographics and its impact on economy.
Though India is at an advantageous position, it will have to take various initiatives to make the most out of this situation. Several studies have pointed out that a huge chunk of India’s educated class is almost unemployable. To tide over this difficulty, the government is trying to ensure the promotion and development of market determined skill sets across the entire economy with emphasis on 20 high-growth employment sectors.
Dr Meenakshi Khemka
Globsyn Business School
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